Sundance had record sales last year

While streamers like Netflix, Apple and Hulu are expected to continue making big deals for the hottest movies at this year’s remote Sundance Film Festival, the still opaque nature of streaming viewership data has made more difficult to gauge whether buyers are getting their money’s worth – as an analysis of last year’s record deals shows.

Clearly, the ongoing pandemic meant that any Sundance pickup that aimed for a theatrical release didn’t see much box office revenue, as older audiences who support arts and crafts movies trial have largely stayed at home. In July, Searchlight released the Questlove documentary “Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” simultaneously in theaters and on Hulu after acquiring it from Park City for $12 million, a movie record. of non-fiction.

In theaters, the film just brought in $3.7 million worldwide. By comparison, three documentaries that premiered at Sundance in 2018 — “RBG,” “Three Identical Strangers” and “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” all earned over $10 million in a limited domestic release.

Other Sundance bigs in 2021 include “Passing,” a drama about a black woman who was fair enough to pass as white starring Ruth Negga and Tessa Thompson. Netflix paid $15 million for the film, but didn’t attract many viewers for the project, which ranked fifth on Netflix’s 10 most-watched titles the week of its release before dropping out altogether. (The streamer declined to provide specific audience data.)

An even bigger mystery surrounds Sian Heder’s indie drama “CODA,” which Apple picked up for a record $25 million at last year’s festival. The film was released in theaters and on Apple TV+ on August 13, about six weeks before Apple TV+ was added to Nielsen’s streaming rating system — and the young streamer hasn’t released any data on the film’s audience, although it garnered the attention of numerous awards.

The pandemic, which has accelerated trends that were already happening before 2020, has also impacted both Sundance and the independent film market. In the latter half of the 2010s, only a few valuable Sundance scripted entries managed to turn a box office profit. Among the rare standouts were Lionsgate’s ‘The Big Sick’ and A24’s ‘Lady Bird’, which grossed $56 million and $78 million worldwide in 2017, and Amazon’s ‘Manchester by the Sea’. Roadside Attractions, which also grossed $78 million worldwide. 2016.

But in 2019, none of the films acquired at Sundance were among the 100 highest-grossing films of the year. Park City darlings like “The Farewell” and “Brittany Runs a Marathon” failed to reach $20 million in domestic revenue. Sundance 2019’s only presence in the top 100 was the professional wrestling biopic “Fighting With My Family,” an MGM co-production that premiered at the festival.

Now, with specialty theaters still operating on a fraction of the revenue they had before the pandemic and doubts are beginning to mount over whether this side of the box office will ever return to pre-COVID revenue levels, the Sundance market looks set to be controlled even more by streamers looking to build their libraries as quickly as possible – and less concerned with an immediate return on investment. John Sloss, founder of indie financier Cinetic Media, agrees that moving away from film has downsides for the indie market.

“It’s true that theater has a better track record of building larger audiences through rapid reviews and word-of-mouth,” he said. “Theatrical release can give a low-concept film that’s really well executed room to breathe and build interest over time.”

On the other hand, Sloss said streamers are pumping more money into the indie market than ever before, using their deep pockets to drop deals that would have been considered huge risks for room distributors a few years ago. barely years. If Netflix is ​​willing to lose over $200 million producing star-driven projects like “Red Notice” or Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman,” then losing $15 million on an indie movie like “Passing” which is already in the box may seem like less of a risk, especially if it can boost the company’s prestige by winning awards.

“Between them, the content budget of the top seven streamers for this year will be around $120 billion,” Sloss estimated. “When you look at that number and the content being released and what that money can be spent on, it’s no surprise that we’re seeing such an increase in bidding for independent distribution rights.”

How long these big outlays will last remains to be seen, and will likely be based on very different metrics from the theatrical models of yesteryear. As Nielsen and other streaming data trackers like SambaTV build their data, analysts will get clearer data on how top streaming titles like “Don’t Look Up” and “The Harder Netflix’s They Fall” works relative to what streamers spend on them.

But just as indie movies released in certain theaters can’t be judged by the same metric as wide releases that fill the top 5 at the box office, indies that hit Hulu and Apple TV+ will have to be judged on their own curve. below the levels seen by streaming movies with big stars and large audiences. Building a transparent scoring system and standard of success for these niche offerings will take time.

Until then, streamers will continue to give Sundance sales reps more and more money in hopes of finding the next awards contender. There may come a time when these streamers decide that the millions they’re spending on five or six indie titles are best served by producing a big movie or hit series that will appeal to audiences, but until then there’s more to it. opportunities than ever for producers and filmmakers who are chosen. for Sundance to land a big sale…at least as long as they’re willing to potentially give up on their big-screen hopes.